SHFE Tin Retreats from Highs and Trades Under Pressure, Supply-Demand Tug-of-War Awaits Macro Guidance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on December 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2601) opened low at 305,000 yuan/mt, fluctuated in the doldrums during the session, and closed at 304,170 yuan/mt at noon, down 3,560 yuan, a decline of 1.16%. The futures showed a trend of opening and moving lower, with the price center shifting to around 304,000 yuan/mt, reflecting significant profit-taking pressure after a substantial rise. Despite ongoing supply concerns, high prices have significantly dampened spot purchase willingness, leading to sluggish trading and putting the futures under pressure.

Overnight, LME tin edged down 0.15% to $39,240/mt. While LME tin inventory remains at a three-year low, providing some support for prices, resistance from the spot market to high prices is becoming evident, and the momentum for continuous increases has weakened somewhat.

From a macro perspective, the current market is facing a complex situation characterized by policy divergence and geopolitical risks. Strengthened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are pushing the US dollar weaker, while the Bank of Japan's signal of raising interest rates has triggered a pullback in risk assets. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to drive up oil prices, indicating that the market will enter a critical turning point by year-end. These macro factors indirectly influence tin prices through their impact on risk appetite and liquidity expectations. Additionally, tensions in eastern DRC still raise supply concerns, but the market has already priced this in to some extent, and new catalysts are needed to further boost prices.

Looking ahead to the afternoon, SHFE tin is expected to hover at highs, with support near 304,000 yuan/mt and resistance at 308,000 yuan/mt. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between long positions taking profits and long-term fundamental benefits. Before key macro policies are implemented in mid-December, investor sentiment remains cautious.